The NHL general managers are having their annual meetings this week and for the second year in a row they are discussing rule changes to decrease the number of games that are resolved by a shootout. The particular ideas they're tossing around—centered around adopting a 3-on-3 overtime—stand a very good chance of working. Since the 2005-2006 season when the NHL got rid of regular season ties by adding the shootout, roughly 2 out of every 5 overtime games ended with a sudden-death goal in overtime. The winners of the remaining 60 percent of games were decided by the shootout, which is a huge amount of games to end in such an unsatisfying fashion. A couple seasons ago, the NHL decreased the value of shootout wins by decreasing their impact as a tiebreaker in the standings. Prior to this season, the league changed the overtime rules so that teams would switch sides between the third period and overtime. The idea was that playing defense in the zone that is further away from your team's bench (as teams do in the second period) will drive up overtime scoring rates and diminish the number of shootouts. Unfortunately neither of these changes to the rules had the desired effect, so the GMs need more ideas about how to get shootouts down to the desired 40 percent. There are two proposals on the table to accomplish this. The first proposal is to play 4-on-4 for the first three minutes of overtime and then switch to 3-on-3 for another four minutes. This is the hybrid overtime model currently used in the minor league AHL, where shootout rates are much lower than the NHL. The second proposal is eliminate 4-on-4 entirely and play 3-on-3 for five minutes. Presumably teams on a powerplay during a 3-on-3 will be allowed an extra skater and can play 4-on-3. The question then is how the two of these proposals may change the percentage of overtime games which go to a shootout. To answer this question I used ten seasons' of play-by-play data to estimate the goal-scoring rates when teams played at 4-on-4 and 3-on-3. When the score is close and teams are playing at 4-on-4 there are approximately 0.091 goals per minute. The extra space on the ice when they are playing 3-on-3 results in a substantially higher scoring rate, 0.168 goals per minute. I used this information to simulate 10,000 NHL seasons under each of the two proposals, as well as a couple other alternatives. The left half of figure below shows the percentage of NHL overtime games which were resolved in a shootout. Each of the last eight seasons has had about 55 to 60 percent of its overtime games go to a shootout. Despite the rule changes this year, there is not a big difference in the shootout rate compared to previous seasons. On the right side of the figure you can see the shootout rates under some alternative overtime rules scenarios. These rates were estimated by simulating 10,000 seasons in which approximately 23 percent of games go into overtime, which is the overtime rate over the last ten years. The results also account for the variance in the estimate of the goal scoring rates. The first scenario, 5 minutes of 4-on-4, represents the current rule structure. It is immediately obvious that the estimated shootout rate, 63.3 percent, is higher than rate in the empirical data. The reason for this is that my simulations do not account for powerplays, which will tend to drive down the number of games that go to a shootout. Because of this, the estimated shootout rates on the right side of the graph are ceiling estimates and the real-world rates would almost certainly be lower. Both proposals being considered by the GMs are likely increase the number of games that end in overtime and thereby decrease the number that go to a shootout. Playing five minutes of 3-on-3 results in a shootout rate of about 43.1 percent, while the hybrid 4-on-4/3-on-3 scenario has a shootout rate of 38.8 percent. Because the hybrid rules would increase the number of minutes of overtime from five to seven, I also estimated the shootout rate in two other seven-minute-overtime scenarios. If the only rule change implemented was extending overtime by two additional minutes, 52.8 percent of overtimes would have zero goals. It is interesting to note that this scenario still results in more shootouts than the 5 minutes of 3-on-3 scenario. Similarly, adding two minutes to the overtime period and playing at 3-on-3 would have the most dramatic impact, decreasing the number of shootouts to 30.8 percent. It is unclear which of these rules changes, if any, the NHL will pursue. Given that the topic is being discussed yet again this year, it seems likely that they will make another change in the near future. And because more radical proposals, like giving teams better incentives to win the game in regulation by changing how the standings are calculated, do not seem to be on the table, hockey fans should expect to see a shake up in overtime rules again next season. Stephen Pettigrew is a PhD candidate at Harvard University, where he studies political science and American politics. He also has a master's degree in statistics from Harvard. In his spare time, he writes about sports analytics, particularly in hockey and football. Relatedodds calculatorsmoneyline parlay calculatormoneyline bet calculationshalf points in online bettingcalculate kelly criterionhedge calculatoropening spreadwhat is the over under in bettingparlay oddswhat does round robin mean in bettingwhat is +ev bettinghedging bets
Related Posts
Mario Gomez and Mesut Oezil scored either side of half-time to give Germany a comfortable 2-0 friendly win over FIFA World Cup hosts South Africa.
With Germany facing Azerbaijan in Hanover in a FIFA World Cup qualifier on Wednesday, coach Joachim Low got the dominance he had demanded in the game s build-up with his side rarely troubled by Bafana Bafana. Lone striker Gomez scored his 11th international goal midway through the first-half before Oezil showed great composure to score his first goal for Germany.
Low introduced a different attacking system, with Oezil and Marko Marin on the flanks and Gomez in the centre. Before kick-off, Germany stalwart Bernd Schneider was honoured to mark his contribution to the national team after been forced to retire earlier this year w…
Midfielder James McCarthy has signed a new deal until 2020 at Everton, the Premier League club have announced.
The 24-year-old Republic of Ireland international, who arrived at Goodison Park from Wigan Athletic for a fee reported to be £13million in 2013, was said to be a target for Tottenham.
Manchester City were also thought to be looking at McCarthy, so the signing of a new long-term deal should bring an end to speculation surrounding his future.
I m buzzing and delighted to be committing my future long-term to Everton. said McCarthy.
I ve loved every minute I ve been here, with the fans having made me feel so welcome from day one, as well as the players and staff.
This is a brilliant club with a brilliant fanbase and what we want to tr…
The Mirror understands that Burnley are planning a £25m double raid on West Bromwich Albion with Craig Dawson and Jay Rodriguez in their sights.
The Clarets are looking for reinforcements as they prepare for a Europa League campaign and have identified the Baggies pair as their top targets.
Both Dawson and Rodriguez are likely to follow Jonny Evans out of the Hawthorns exit door after the Midlands club were relegated to the Championship, while Solomon Rondon has also been linked with a move away with Newcastle United in the running to secure his services.
Dawson has played one hundred and eighty times for West Brom over seven seasons, scoring twelve goals while Rodriguez – who began his career at Turf Moor – scored eleven goals in his one and only campa…
Fiorentina defender Juan Manuel Vargas is reportedly being chased by several of Europe s top clubs, inlcuding the likes of Manchester United, Real Madrid, Chelsea, Barcelona and Inter Milan.
The Peruvian international was rumoured to have already agreed to join La Liga giants Real Madrid in January and was even set to join Los Blancos before signing for Fiorentina in 2008.
The versatile 26-year-old normally plays at left wing back but has excelled at left wing for both club and country, becoming a crucial part of the Viola squad on the left wing with fellow Fiorentina star Alberto Gilardino stating that Vargas was one of the best crossers he has ever played with.
Vargas recently scored the winner against French Ligue 1 side Lyon to secure Fiorentina s place in t…
I have never been entirely convinced by new Aston Villa signing Stewart Downing. He does have a decent left foot and he has done wonders to keep Middlesbrough battling it out in the top league for a few years but I’ve never thought he was an international player.
Track record
Aston Villa boss Martin O’Neill obviously highly rates the twenty-four year old left winger and he has a pretty good track record with his selection of players. He has signed Downing for £12 million on a four-year deal from Middlesbrough.
He is Villa’s first new signing of the summer and whilst his arrival will have been given a cautious welcome by most Villa fans I guess there must be an element of worry that the excellent Ashley …
Leicester City and Algeria winger Riyad Mahrez has been named as the African Player of the Year by the Confederation of African Football (CAF).
Mahrez, who played a starring role in Leicester s shock 2015-16 Premier League title triumph, overcame competition from last year s winner, Borussia Dortmund and Gabon star Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang, and Liverpool and Senegal forward Sadio Mane.
A total of 361 votes saw Mahrez best Aubameyang s return of 313, while Mane attracted 186 backers in third.
The 25-year-old s latest gong is added to the PFA Player of the Year award he scooped earlier this year.
He contributed a stunning 17 goals and 10 assists to Leicester s glorious Premier League campaign although, much like his team-mates, he has found the going tough…
Tottenham first-team coach Joe Jordan admits his players will have to start practicing their spot kicks more often after another miss consigned them to an FA Cup fifth round replay with Bolton.
When Bolton goalkeeper Jussi Jaaskelainen saved Tom Huddlestone s second half penalty to secure a 1-1 draw at the Reebok Stadium on Sunday, it was the fourth penalty out of six this season that had been missed by Spurs.
England forward Jermain Defoe was relieved of the duties after taking his total of misses to six from 10 attempts in the 2-2 FA Cup fourth round draw with Leeds last month.
The only Tottenham player to have converted a penalty this season is Robbie Keane, who scored in the 5-0 win over Burnley and the 4-0 victory over Peterborough but has now joined Celtic…
Jose Gaya has called on Valencia to make further strides as they seek to seal qualification for the Champions League knock-out stages with victory at Gent.
The Liga side will ensure progression to the last 16 if they beat Gent on Wednesday and Lyon fail to claim all three points in their Group H clash with leaders Zenit.
Valencia are second in the group on six points in their first appearance in the Champions League since 2013, with Gent and Lyon both struggling having taken only one point from three games.
Nuno s side have found life more difficult in La Liga after finishing fourth last season, and are five points adrift of the Champions League places 10 games into the campaign.
However, Valencia visit the Ghelamco Arena on the back of a morale-boosti…
Borussia Dortmund star Erling Haaland will define an era according to Atletico Madrid forward Luis Suarez, who placed him ahead of Paris Saint-Germain sensation Kylian Mbappe.
Haaland continues to take Europe by storm as the Dortmund forward reportedly attracts interest from Real Madrid, Manchester City, Barcelona, Manchester United, Chelsea, Juventus, Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool.
The 20-year-old, who joined Dortmund from Salzburg in January last year, scored twice in Saturday s 2-2 draw away to Cologne – the Norway international taking his tally to 14 away goals in the Bundesliga this season, more than Werder Bremen (13), Hertha Berlin (13), Mainz (11), Arminia Bielefeld (10) and Schalke (eight) have scored at home in 2020-21.
Suarez heaped praise on Haa…
Stuttgart have parted company with manager Bruno Labbadia after just three games of the new Bundesliga season.
Labbadia, 47, took charge at the Mercedes-Benz Arena in December 2010 and had signed a contract extension in January, but he has paid the price for a winless start to the campaign.
Stuttgart scraped past Bulgarian side Botev Plovdiv on away goals in the third qualifying round for the UEFA Europa League and have lost each of their domestic fixtures so far, including Sunday s 2-1 reverse away to Augsburg.
After an indifferent start to the 2012-13 season, Stuttgart recovered to secure a safe mid-table position, while also reaching the final of the DFB-Pokal where they were defeated by Bayern Munich.
Stuttgart opened their Bundesliga season with a 3-2 defeat…